Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 1.876101 1.977291 2.083077 2.202280 2.333309 2.473457 2.635372
2025-04-20 1.734433 1.876936 2.032782 2.217230 2.431382 2.674488 2.974725
2025-04-27 1.654313 1.824126 2.015977 2.251506 2.536791 2.876558 3.320500
2025-05-04 1.594310 1.784241 2.004484 2.283128 2.632944 3.067424 3.665051
2025-05-11 1.522567 1.723091 1.960269 2.267429 2.664179 3.174153 3.906828
2025-05-18 1.463162 1.671754 1.922723 2.254462 2.694003 3.277013 4.149796
2025-05-25 1.409212 1.623290 1.884664 2.236376 2.713020 3.363515 4.375464
2025-06-01 1.361154 1.579210 1.848918 2.217695 2.727840 3.442723 4.596382
2025-06-08 1.326388 1.549831 1.829794 2.218810 2.768384 3.560068 4.888914
2025-06-15 1.302519 1.532899 1.825373 2.238570 2.835277 3.720558 5.272210
2025-06-22 1.261238 1.491572 1.786622 2.208258 2.826586 3.763397 5.458189
2025-06-29 1.220548 1.449448 1.744917 2.171331 2.805082 3.783188 5.603905
2025-07-06 1.177189 1.402941 1.696273 2.123233 2.765256 3.772494 5.696372
2025-07-13 1.160550 1.391233 1.694256 2.141642 2.827759 3.934790 6.147143
2025-07-20 1.150048 1.387130 1.702153 2.174354 2.914107 4.145188 6.735962
2025-07-27 1.139236 1.382045 1.708198 2.204212 2.997487 4.358780 7.380182
2025-08-03 1.114649 1.357278 1.685495 2.189409 3.006437 4.437868 7.735163
2025-08-10 1.092275 1.334841 1.665221 2.177176 3.018521 4.523427 8.124720
2025-08-17 1.069621 1.311340 1.642570 2.160109 3.021053 4.590500 8.483222
2025-08-24 1.047954 1.288606 1.620248 2.142476 3.021300 4.652770 8.844563
2025-08-31 1.032888 1.274670 1.610172 2.143529 3.053956 4.783063 9.432290
2025-09-07 1.023619 1.268579 1.611251 2.162180 3.118774 4.986739 10.306303
2025-09-14 1.001460 1.243642 1.583754 2.133566 3.096228 5.002179 10.592157